11. Implementation of Third Millennium Economics for Individuals

 

 Live as if you were to die tomorrow.  Learn as if you were to live forever.

– Mahatma Gandhi

Ability will never catch up with the demand for it.

– Confucius

 

(Video).  Building upon the meme presented in the previous section on how the future is not evenly distributed, it is now time to take steps to get more of the future distributed in your favor.  As an individual, there are a myriad of resources and capabilities at your fingertips, that can make you healthy, wealthy, and wise with a speed and efficiency that was previously impossible. 

 

How to Think Like Part of the ATOM :  You are not merely a hapless creature being swept along by the ATOM, you are a part of it.  Whether a person is interested in the subject matter discussed here or not, the ATOM is interested in them.  Every aspect of life is being woven into the ATOM as existing hierarchies and power structures are being toppled and re-arranged at accelerating speeds.  Therein lies tremendous opportunity, and thus opportunity cost for those who fail to become sufficiently astute.  Just consider a few of the examples that come to mind :

• Never before has it been easier to research a career, or to contact someone who is in a position you wish to attain in the future. A skilled and determined user of LinkedIn can replace much of the networking utility of an MBA degree from all but the top few institutions, saving considerable time and expense.  The ability to keep track of the career progression of dozens of peers, and identify common elements of success among them, is often underestimated.

• An amateur filmmaker now has access to high-definition cameras, editing software, terabytes of storage, and sound synthesizers that would have been prohibitively expensive just a decade ago. A film project can be financed through a crowdfunding site, the work and reputation of potential collaborators can be researched easily through their web presence, and trailers can be marketed through YouTube.  Such a project has at least six components that did not exist at the start of the century.

• Before Yelp and other review aggregators, there was considerable uncertainly when patronizing a new restaurant. Now, not only are user reviews easy to find, but pictures of many menu items are posted on Yelp itself.  This information arms the diner with much more awareness of the menu, and enables the restaurant to avoid being castigated due to a misinformed order by the diner.  The same applies to checking the reviews of a new film or theater production beforehand, greatly reducing the chance of a negative surprise after the sunk cost of tickets.  Dentists, auto mechanics, photographers, hairdressers, etc. can be similarly vetted from a computer screen.  This new convenience to the consumer experience is not recorded favorably in GDP calculations, even though millions of instances of dissatisfaction and lost time have been avoided.

• Automobile commuters with good jobs but lengthy commutes have joined Uber-type platforms to take a rider along with them on the commute they have to undertake anyway. The driver earns an extra $200-$400/week (against which an appropriate portion of car and smartphone costs can be applied as deductions) with no incremental input time or cost.  Meanwhile, other commuters enjoy having one less car on the road for each such dynamically generated carpooling pair.  The key is that a dead commute is now monetized even by corporate-class people, increasing passengers per car and reducing traffic congestion, while replacing dedicated taxicabs.  For the macroeconomy, it also creates new VM where none existed before.

• A trifecta of new technologies has enabled small manufacturers to experience a phoenix-like resurgence in the US. Fracking has toppled the price of US natural gas to a sixth of what it was in 2007, bestowing any gas-intensive manufacturer with a major cost advantage over non-US rivals.  Low-cost 3D Printing has lowered scale as a barrier to entry for many types of manufacturing and prototyping.  Manufacturing robots can perform many tasks better than human workers, 24/7/365, at a cost as low as $1/hour, while being continuously augmented with new software updates.  The rise of the solo advanced manufacturer is now upon us, with individuals operating out of a small space producing and selling millions of dollars of high-margin goods.

Have you done enough aggregate Internet searching and forum commenting to capture all the low-hanging fruits available to you for your personal advancement and risk management?  If you answer that question in the affirmative, I am here to tell you that you have not come even close to realizing what is possible.  Even heavily committed people barely access 10% of the information that could greatly improve their careers, finances, health, and relationships, and I don’t think there is anyone in the world, no matter how successful, who has implemented more than 50% of what is available to them.  I myself am nowhere near this level.

Recall the earlier point about how it is now possible to research in minutes what used to take half a day in the public library (that too if you were fortunate enough to be in a country that even had public libraries at the time).   Add to that the ability to get your questions answered in forums like Yahoo Answers, Quora, etc.  Then combine that with connections between different memes, factoids, and tangents that would not have been visible in the glacial pace of information accrual and exchange before Internet search and forums.  Integrating all this, you can see how your ability to access and implement valuable information can take a great leap forward, and how almost everyone can participate in the creation of knowledge.

Case Studies of Personal Third Millennium Economics :  Sometimes, a story can better illustrate the ways a person savvy to the disruptive and augmentative nature of new technologies can rapidly upgrade one or more aspects of their life.  There is more fluidity and mobility across classes and strata than was possible before, and the ATOM is now the land of opportunity.  The following are four examples of how someone might adapt and thrive within the new realities of Third Millennium Economics.

1) Lisa wanted to become an exceptionally good amateur chef, but back in 1998, she found the available instructional materials to be limited and uninspiring.  Every cooking show on TV required the viewer to be interested in the item being presented in that specific episode, with no way for the viewer to search for their own preferences.  Cookbooks were not a good solution either, for each ingredient listed in a recipe required that item to be purchased in a larger quantity, leaving remainder quantities of each item in the refrigerator and pantry.  Lisa wondered for years why none of these cookbooks had a matrix in the back of the book, linking ingredients across recipes, to make the shopping process for the layperson more efficient and less wasteful.  Lisa found this oversight among the sum total of published cookbooks to be quite ridiculous.  She knew that there was major overlap in the basics of cooking, but this was not easy for an amateur to discover without taking an expensive cooking class.

By around 2004, however, something began to change.  Lisa found that many of the premier French, Italian, and Indian chefs were posting knowledge online.  The common theme among them began to emerge.  Great chefs think not in terms of compliance to a fixed recipe, but rather see what ingredients are available, and create a production from them.  Cooking has to be bottom-up, not top-down.  The ‘eureka’ moment for Lisa was that she could simply type ingredients into Google, and recipes that utilize those ingredients would come up.  This was vastly more efficient than a cookbook, and allowed Lisa to get past the learning bottleneck holding her and others back.  She could also now buy certain perishables without worrying about exactly what she will make from them as the clock ticks.  The arrival of YouTube was another godsend, where, unlike a regularly scheduled cooking show, the user can merely search for whatever recipe she wants.  A video is far easier to emulate than a text recipe, and further expanded upon the list of perishable ingredients she can now purchase in a shopping trip.

After years of stagnation, Lisa’s skills improved rapidly after these revelations, and she even posted some of her own cooking videos to YouTube.  Comment feedback from like-minded viewers led to additional improvements.  Lisa eventually reached a level of expertise where she was able to produce cuisine that met or exceeded what was available at fine restaurants, with her YouTube channel accruing over 1,000,000 subscribers, elevating her hobby to a full-time, commute-free career.

2) Fred always had a keen financial mind, and wanted to do better with generating a return in his IRA and his brokerage account, for he knew that this is just as important as his paycheck from his day job.  He did not believe in individual stocks, for he knew he was unlikely to ever close the information disadvantage he had relative to institutions and those very close to the companies.  He also found mutual funds to be uninspiring due to their high fees, and the inability to short them or write options on them.

The advent of Yahoo Finance in the late 1990s made a wealth of information available for free, but most of the information was still about individual stocks, which was not Fred’s target.  In the process of mining Yahoo Finance, he found a great deal of information on options, as well as daily quotes that were previously unavailable so freely.  It was exceedingly difficult for a layperson to research, let alone trade options before the late 1990s, with truly abundant information only appearing around 2005 or so.  The discovery process made Fred knowledgeable about options, and eventually futures.  As computing and data transmission became cheaper, brokerage firms were able to lower their trading commissions.  Fred began to create algorithms to generate returns strictly from options and futures of broadly traded commodities, such as oil, gold, natural gas, and ^vix volatility.  Despite some early setbacks, he eventually was able to generate 30-50% annual compounded returns from his algorithms, built around the principle of capturing the various time decays (option decay, futures contango, leverage decay) inherent to those instruments.

As these returns became routine for Fred, his day job became optional, and he gave some thought to managing client money full-time and establishing a hedge fund.  Fortunately, in the Internet age, it was easy for him to locate attorneys, auditors, and other service providers.  By shopping around, he found that the Internet had increased competition amongst these providers, and thus the fixed costs associated with operating a hedge fund have fallen from about $500,000/year to just $30,000/year, greatly reducing the minimum assets needed for the hedge fund to be viable.  Fred’s hedge fund became sustainable with just $10 Million in assets, a threshold unheard of in the past, and he joined the new layer of hedge funds with under $20 Million in assets under management returning over 30%/year.   The ability to run his fund from anywhere enabled him to relocate to a preferred destination.

This story is not to say that the percentage of people who become good at generating returns has increased, but rather accessibility is now far more democratic, permitting talented people from outside the establishment to make use of skills that may have gone to waste in the past.  On this front, we are still only at the beginning.

3) James is an accountant, and has been employed at a large multinational corporation for over 15 years.  As a top performer, he enjoys higher job security than his peers, but is nonetheless apprehensive about the speed at which his colleagues are vanishing and being subsumed by AI.  After reading a number of frightening articles in the media, James was deeply worried about how long he could stay ahead of the machines.

Then, one fine day, James came across this publication, and began to see AI in a different light.  It dawned on him that what he was observing was not the utter disappearance of accounting jobs into thin air, but that an accounting department with ten accountants at a payroll cost of $2M/yr could now generate the same services for a mere $100,000/yr (and falling) in AI costs and a sole human manager.  James started to ponder the implications of starting his own accounting firm, where the work that could bring in $2M/yr in fees could be performed just by him and this new AI capability.  His deep knowledge of accounting and reputation in his field meant he could accommodate a large portion of his former employer’s accounting work into his own private practice, on top of acquiring additional clients.  One man and his AI was now doing the work of ten, and could earn the income formerly earned by those ten.  Until now, most solo practitioner accountants only handled smaller individual clients, and it was unheard of that a single-person firm could presume to undertake the enormity of work generated by an entire corporate department.  James was one of the revolutionaries changing this, even though he never thought he would become an entrepreneur.

As happens whenever a new business model becomes highly profitable, James’ success attracted competitors and pricing pressures began to manifest.  At the same time, this competition created many additional jobs in sales, marketing, and support.  Next, the market itself grew from the entry of smaller firms that could now avail themselves of elite accounting services previously beyond their reach.  The ecosystem began to mature, but James continued to earn several times more than he did as a corporate employee, simply by continuing to refine the implementation of AI in his practice.

Lastly, what of the other accountants who saw their positions eliminated, and are not as talented as James?  Well, some were able to get jobs in accounting working alongside AI, while others had to transition to different careers.  This illustrates why the cushioning effect of the universal minimum stipend supplied by central bank monetary expansion is so essential, as it ensures that everyone gets some return from pervasive and accelerating forces of technological disruption while conducting their own transitions.

4) The legendary 'Delta Team' is a team of three video game creators who had produced a sequence of extremely successful titles.  The team was widely acclaimed in their field, and they were able to do almost every aspect of game production for a top-flight game by themselves.  But in the past, they were dependent on working within large game companies for the brand, corporate-class resources, and distribution channel. 

As the Delta Team's successes accumulated, even the brand of the large company that housed them became secondary to their own, but the distribution channel kept them chained.  Video games in 2006 sold as boxed products, and while one could buy the box online, most sales were still through brick and mortar stores.  The boxed product in the form of CDs or DVDs did not have a large fixed cost per unit (unlike the cartridges that caused an infamous inventory bust in 1983), but still required capital outlay, production time, packaging, and shipping.  After that, the retailer margin consumed 30% of the retail price, even stocking a retail channel had onerous requirements of inventory.  This had to be done again and again for each country, often with translation requirements for retail packaging, leading to complicated supply/demand mismatches that were tedious to rectify.  This led to each boxed game selling for a retail price of $50.  Hence, over 20,000 boxed copies had to be produced for a rudimentary launch, and that too only for the US, UK, and Australia.  Unsold units carried a risk of an expensive write-down.  

But as the ATOM progressed, the convergence of broadband, anti-piracy technologies, price declines of advanced tools, and more, it became possible for the Delta Team to produce games entirely by themselves.  Their YouTube livestreams of gameplay during development created a direct connection between the developers and their customers, which enabled feedback to be incorporated into the game itself.  Furthermore, they were now able to sell games exclusively through a website via unique downloads, thereby removing dependency on the big corporate umbrella and large retailers that require upfront inventory, as well as country-by-country permits and retail localization.  Suddenly, forecasting sales was no longer an important part of the equation, as long as revenue met a minimum threshold for a certain game to be justified on the production roadmap. 

The Delta Team could now operate as their own independent company for the first time ever.  In this age, they could sell games for $30 instead of the previous $50, while earning about the same per unit sale.  Customers in countries that would have been too cumbersome to stock with retail inventory in 2006 were instantly available.  Best of all, the situation of boxed games needing to be destocked from brick and mortar retail because a certain retail chain required at least 300 units/week in sales no longer existed, as residual sales for successful games continued for years after this point, which could be serviced by the download purchase model.  The Delta Team collectively agreed to relocate to a tax haven and produce games on their own.  They churned out game after game that sold 100,000 units or more, or $3 Million in revenue each.  Hence, all three members of the Delta Team achieved a great combination of success and independence.  

These are just four examples of how someone might view the advent of accelerating technological disruption as an endless stream of opportunity, no matter what field someone works in.  I have detailed maps for how specific professions, such as engineering, marketing, product management, investment banking, management consulting, medicine, and law could each supercharge their careers with greater Third Millennium Economics awareness.  The savvy and observant individual has a galaxy of avenues from which to choose from, ensuring that more of the future is distributed towards them.  Everyone is surrounded by dozens of such avenues to pursue, no matter what your technical expertise, age, or station in life.

Continue to : 12. The ATOM’s Effect on the Final Frontier

 

Comments

[Scott]

Are the detailed maps for specific professions available ? I would love to see the one for engineering, and some of the other professions.

Thanks!

[Kartik Gada]

Hi Scott,

Yes, I do have maps for several types of engineering, including circuit design, software engineering, mechanical engineering, etc.

While the detailed maps will be part of a consulting/coaching practice that is currently being built out, I can disclose certain basics.

[Scott]

Well, I personally am a mechanical engineer (aerospace), attempting to change careers into software engineering (thus far unsuccessfully), and running a hobby level but increasingly promising Math/Statistics blog & selling Math/Statistics Kindle books.

So I would be interesting in any information for those fields that you were able to share

Love the huge data dump of the ATOM book!

[Kartik Gada]

Scott,

One important area is the software of 3D Printing. It is a good combination of both MechE (although not aerospace) and software principles.

I did in fact run an entire non-profit devoted to exactly this :
https://kprize.wordpress.com/

In terms of aerospace specifically, private spaceflight is finally a real field. There is quite a bit of software involved in that as well, since the endgame is to miniaturize spacecraft to tiny sizes and house artificial intelligence within them, which thus becomes the most effective method of space exploration ever.

Check out SpaceX and similar companies as a starting point.

[computer_guy524]

"Fred began to create algorithms to generate returns strictly from options and futures of broadly traded commodities, such as oil, gold, natural gas, and ^vix volatility. Despite some early setbacks, he eventually was able to generate 30-50% annual compounded returns from his algorithms, built around the principle of capturing the various time decays (option decay, futures contango, leverage decay) inherent to those instruments."

How would one do this? Where would they even start?

[Kartik Gada]

Computer_Guy524,

It is something that takes a certain talent + years of experience, but I am going to be teaching an Options and Futures class at Stanford in Spring 2017.

In general, don't think in terms of stock picking. Think instead in terms of indices, options decay, futures decay, and so on.

[computer_guy524]

Hi KG,

Thanks for getting back to me.

Is this class going to be hosted somewhere like on coursera? I'd love to follow along. Also, what sort of talent would one need?

[Kartik Gada]

CG524,

It won't be on Coursera, it is on-site at Stanford. I guess you are not in the Bay Area..

The talents needed are a) mathematics, b) economics, c) finance, d) ability to not freak out when positions move against you, as holding often leads to recoupment, but hasty liquidation is problematic, e) ability to keep things secret, and not get drawn into conversations about individual stocks at parties (which is always a waste of time).

The key is to think in terms of options decay, futures decay/contango, and remember that indices always trump individual stockpicking.

[Scott]

Hello,

I have been supplementing my engineering income by writing non-fiction technical books and selling them on Amazon Kindle. I have reasonable expectations that this might be worth $40,000 in sales this year. This is income that wouldn't have been possible 10 years ago, since kindle didn't exist.

However I am curious to know if you have any suggestions as to how I as an author can use accelerating technology to increase that income. What are some key things to look at to either increase my ability to write more content more quickly or attract more readers? I would love to get some really good voice to text, or handwriting to text, which would both allow me to remove work that I am currently doing and turn dead time in to productive time.

Thanks!

[Kartik Gada]

Scott,

That is good. You are thinking the right way. To generate an income that was not possible before is precisely the right track to be on.

To speed up income gains, you can take some copyediting work and have one of those offshore service providers do it for cheap. If that saves you time and increases your book output, that is a productivity increase.

Some speech-to-text software may also increase productivity, but different ones fit with different people's styles.

Plus, make sure your book royalty income is tax-efficient, with all sorts of expenses related to the work written off against the income.

For attracting readers, it is tough given the subject matter, but periodically comment on LinkedIn, referencing your book, so that your personal brand increases and your network sees you as an expert. Make sure your LinkedIn rises to over 1000 contacts, in order to amplify this network effect. If you have thousands of readers who purchased your publications, then be sure to merge this with LinkedIn postings, and maybe even do meetups or speak at conferences devoted to the subject matter. All of this raises your professional profile, and will bring more/better job offers for your day job as well.

[Scott]

Thank you, I appreciate the input. Outsourcing more of the work is something I definitely need to put some more attention on.

I hadn't thought of using Linkedin for that purpose, so that is definitely something to work on.